By Darren Katz Every great capital cycle eventually produces two sets of books. One is kept by the optimists, who measure the size of the prize. The other is kept by the lenders, who measure how long it takes to get paid. For most of the cycle the two ledgers agree....
By Robert Swift Energy investing has its own social hierarchy. At the top sit the fashionable: solar developers with ambitious targets, battery makers with ambitious valuations and explorers with ambitious geologists. Somewhere near the bottom, rarely asked to give...
By Robert Swift Every technology mania eventually meets a loading dock. For global AI infrastructure stocks, that moment has arrived. The first phase is always the exciting one. Models, chips, demonstrations, conference keynotes delivered in a leather jacket. The...
There is a particular species of investor who is convinced that the hard part is seeing the future. Get the thesis right, the reasoning goes, and the returns arrive as a matter of arithmetic. It is a flattering idea, because it locates the difficulty in the one place...
By Robert Swift There is a curious sameness to the equity conversation this year. Roughly every second idea that crosses the desk is a variation on the same theme: chips, models, hyperscaler capital expenditure, the coming compute supercycle, and the breathless...
There is a comforting illusion that takes hold whenever a great company finally comes to market and the orders come flooding in. When a business is wanted badly enough, we quietly assume the money to buy it will always be there. Demand feels infinite. Capital starts...
By Robert Swift There is a strange quality to the current market conversation. Roughly every second equity story that crosses the desk this year is some variation on artificial intelligence, GPU demand, hyperscaler capex, or the next great compute cycle. Some of this...
There is a particular pleasure in finding businesses the market has decided are finished telling interesting stories. The narrative has moved on. The growth chapter is closed. The conference circuit has lost interest. And somewhere in that silence, the cash flows keep...
By Sid Ruttala There are few things in markets more entertaining than a commodity that has gone from “the future of civilisation” to “uninvestable rubbish” in the space of eighteen months, only to then stage a twitch and invite everyone back to the party. Lithium has...
The real bottleneck in AI may not be semiconductors, but electricity. We look at five listed global infrastructure stocks exposed to the grid, transmission, switchgear, transformers, and power distribution needed to support data centres and digital infrastructure.
A few weeks ago, in The Middle East Build-Up: What Investors Must Think About Now, we argued that investors did not need to predict war, they needed to prepare for its consequences. The core view was simple. If the US and Iran moved toward open conflict, oil would...
By Darren Katz The geopolitical temperature in the Middle East is rising. The United States has increased its military posture in the region, naval assets are repositioning, and rhetoric between Washington and Tehran is intensifying. Whether conflict becomes kinetic...
