Big Tech Earnings Review – Alphabet and Microsoft

Big Tech Earnings Review – Alphabet and Microsoft

Weekly Reading List – 24th of April

This week’s reading and viewing list covers How Not to Invest in the Bond Market, Secrets of Family Empires and Generative A.I. Arrives in the Gene Editing World of CRISPR.
📚 The Little Things that Result in the Big Things (Ian Cassel, Microcap Club)

📚 How Not to Invest in the Bond Market (Jason Zweig, WSJ – paid)

📚 Secrets of Family Empires (Steve Clapham)

📚 Do We Have the Technologies Necessary to Reduce Global Emissions? (Bridgewater)

📺Russell Napier. Twenty One Lessons from Financial History for the Way We Live Now. (Youtube)

🎙️ Company Story: Microsoft (Acquired Podcast)

📚 Meta and Open (Ben Thomson)

📚 Generative A.I. Arrives in the Gene Editing World of CRISPR (Cade Metz, New York Times)

AI Real Estate and the Importance of Data Centres

AI Real Estate and the Importance of Data Centres

In the early days of the internet, scepticism swirled around the notion of a global network connecting computers.

People questioned its reliability, its security, and even its purpose. Yet, as history unfolded, the internet proved to be a transformative force beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. It democratised information, revolutionised communication, and reshaped entire industries. Fast forward to the present, where another technological marvel, artificial intelligence (AI), stands poised at the frontier of innovation.

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Much like the internet before it, AI is being met with uncertainty and speculation. Will it surpass human intelligence? Could it fundamentally alter the fabric of society? Today, AI permeates every aspect of our lives, from personalised recommendations on streaming platforms to autonomous vehicles navigating our streets.

But what fuels the astonishing capabilities of AI?

The answer lies in the vast infrastructure of data centres, where immense amounts of data are stored, processed, and analysed with unprecedented speed and efficiency. As we delve deeper into the realms of AI, it becomes increasingly clear that data centres are the silent engines shaping the future and powering this technological revolution.

What is a Data Centre?

Data centres serve as the backbone of modern computing infrastructure, providing a physical space for organisations to store critical applications and data.

Evolving from traditional on-premises servers to virtual networks and multi cloud environments, data centres now span multiple sites, including the edge and public and private clouds. As data proliferates across these diverse environments, effective communication between data centres becomes paramount. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) further amplifies the demands on data centres. We have previously discussed the side effects of power-intensive deep learning models requiring substantial computational resources.

GPU’s and TPU’s are specialised hardware for accelerating AI workloads, driving up power density, necessitating the construction of more energy-efficient and high-capacity data centres.

Legacy and on-premises data centres face challenges in adapting to these changes, requiring optimisation of interconnection, compute, and storage solutions to keep pace with AI advancements. Additionally, managing the heat generated by energy-intensive hardware presents both technical and environmental considerations, driving the adoption of enhanced cooling solutions like liquid cooling. As AI continues to reshape industries and drive innovation, the role of data centres in supporting its growth becomes increasingly vital.

Who are the Data Centre Players on the ASX?

NEXTDC

NEXTDC (ASX: NXT), an ASX 100-listed technology company, is a leading Data Centre-as-a-Service provider in Asia.

They focus on building infrastructure for the digital economy, providing power, security, and connectivity for global cloud computing providers, enterprises, and governments.

Running a data centre isn’t easy and requires significant capital investment. NEXTDC recently announced a capital raise with the intention to develop its infrastructure platform in both Sydney & Melbourne to meet client demand. Commenting on that demand, NEXTDC Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Craig Scroggie said:

“NEXTDC continues to see significant growth in demand for its data centre services underpinned by powerful structural tailwinds. Amid this backdrop, we have decided to bring forward the development and fitout of key assets in Sydney and Melbourne to ensure we are able to meet this growth in demand, continue to support our customers, and ensure the Company is well positioned to take advantage of the diverse range of opportunities expected to present over the medium term.”

The entitlement offer aims to raise an extraordinary $1.3 billion and comprises a 1 for 6 pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement. The deal offers holders a price of $15.40 per new share, which represents a discount of 6.8% to the share price prior to the announcement of $16.52.

At the time of the announcement, NEXTDC reaffirmed its previously announced guidance with total revenue in the range of $400 million to $415 million and net revenue in the range of $296 million to $304 million. The company expects underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) in the range of $190 million to $200 million. Capital expenditure remains a significant factor and is expected to be in the range of $850 million to $900 million, more than double the expected revenue!

AirTrunk

Strike while the iron is hot? That iron is AI and AirTrunk is looking for over $15 billion for its business.

AirTrunk is a hyperscale data centre specialist creating a platform for cloud, content and large enterprise customers across the Asia-Pacific & Japan (APJ) region. It develops and operates data centre campuses with leading technology and innovation while using unique capabilities as part of the designs and construction to provide its customers with a scalable and sustainable data centre solution at a significantly lower build and operating cost than the market.

Global Data Centre Group (ASX: GDC) is an Australian fund that provides holders with the ability to gain exposure to digital infrastructure assets. That exposure includes a stake in AirTrunk acquired through its investment into the Macquarie led consortium that acquired an 88% stake in AirTrunk.

As AI continues its meteoric rise, reshaping industries and driving innovation, the critical role of data centres in supporting this growth becomes increasingly evident.

From the early days of scepticism surrounding the internet to the present, where AI permeates every aspect of our lives, data centres have evolved into the silent engines powering technological revolutions. As power-intensive AI applications demand more computational resources, data centres face the challenge of adapting to meet these demands. Companies operating within this sector are poised to be pivotal in supporting the forthcoming wave of technological advancements. However, prudent investors must exercise vigilance in assessing the enduring quality of these investments, despite their importance.

As the world embraces the transformative potential of AI, the significance of robust and efficient data centres cannot be overstated, positioning them as indispensable players in shaping the future of technology and society.


Disclaimer: Global Data Centre Group (ASX: GDC) is held in TAMIM Portfolios as at date of article publication. Holdings can change substantially at any given time.
CHIPS: Megatrends and Mega Funding

CHIPS: Megatrends and Mega Funding

We first highlighted the importance of semiconductors back in April 2023 when we introduced the concept of megatrends. Back then, we used the example of the automotive industry and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), and highlighted how investing in the “picks and shovels” of an industry can often lead to substantially higher returns for investors. ​

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Semiconductors Primer

As we discussed, semiconductors are a unique substance that can operate as both an insulator (it prevents the flow of electrical charge) and a conductor (it can carry electrical charge). Semiconductors are produced from pure elements like silicon or germanium, or compounds such as gallium arsenide, and then treated through a chemical process known as “doping” that enhances conductivity. These chips perch on wafer-thin stages where their properties of conduction (like metals) and insulation (like rubber), let them steer electrical signals to lay the cornerstones of today’s technological evolution.

By combining semiconductors with insulators and other materials, engineers can precisely control the movement of electricity. They are therefore invaluable components in a host of electronic equipment such as computers and other consumer electronics, telecommunication devices, and automobiles. There are semiconductor manufacturers that focus on niche industries or even specific products, there are more diversified semiconductor producers, and there are also a range of companies that provide associated technologies.

A New Wave of Innovation

The evolution of semiconductors over the last fifty years has been truly transformative. They have evolved with and enabled personal computing in the 1990s, the Internet in the 2000s, smartphones in the 2010s, and now, are a key in the emerging “Internet of Things” (IoT) megatrend. This involves embedding everyday devices (air conditioners, washing machines, etc.) with sensors, software and other technologies to enable them to send and receive data (that is, interact with the Internet).

Breakthrough technologies such as 5G networks, EVs, and artificial intelligence (AI) have only accelerated these trends and led to a new era of progress for the semiconductor industry. In fact, consulting agency McKinsey foresees only continued growth in semiconductor demand, with it poised to become a US$1 trillion industry by the end of the decade.

America on the Fringe

Unfortunately for where this all began, the United States is no longer at the forefront of this wave of innovation. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. today is only responsible for the production of just 12% of the world’s semiconductors–down from 37% in the 1990s. This is believed to be largely a result of a decline in government investment, with research and development spending on semiconductors holding largely flat relative to GDP while other countries have significantly ramped up their investments.

Taiwan is the undisputed leader of semiconductor manufacturing as a direct result of the aptly named Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (NYSE: TSM), which is believed to produce up to 50% of the world’s total semiconductors. It operates a foundry business model, where it produces chips for a number of other companies such as Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and as we have previously mentioned, NVIDIA.

South Korea is also another semiconductor powerhouse, largely owing to Samsung Electronics Co (KRX: 005930), which contributes a staggering 20% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Samsung also operates a foundry producing semiconductors for other companies, as well as operating as an integrated device manufacturer (IDM), producing semiconductors to use in its own range of products, such as home appliances.

Other major countries involved in semiconductors are Japan, which is home to more than 100 semiconductor fabrication plants, and of course, China. China is the world’s largest market for semiconductors thanks to its manufacturing prowess, and the Chinese government has stated its intentions to expand the country’s capabilities with the intention of eventually becoming self-reliant (that is, producing all the semiconductors it requires within China and not requiring any imports). This could lead to China producing up to one-quarter of the world’s semiconductors by 2030.

Enter the CHIPS Act

The U.S. has increasingly pursued an America-first agenda, most notably since the Trump administration when Donald Trump used a more aggressive stance towards China, resulting in a so-called trade war (this included, among other things, the alleged theft of intellectual property). Since this time, geopolitical tensions with China have only deteriorated, partly as a result of China’s stronger commentary towards Taiwan.

This increased geopolitical tension, combined with severe supply chain disruptions during the pandemic and the economic potential of a growing semiconductor industry led to the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS Act).

Passed into law in August 2022, the CHIPS Act is designed to strengthen the domestic U.S. semiconductor industry (research, design and manufacturing) as well as enhancing national security.

Specifically, the CHIPS Act provides approximately US$278 billion in total funding between 2022 and 2026. This includes a range of different programs, the most notable of which are STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), R&D, and workforce and development program authorisations for the National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of Commerce, and advanced manufacturing tax credits and loan programs.

The Act is already having an effect. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has announced a US$40 billion investment in memory chip manufacturing (critical for computers and electronic devices), which is expected to create up to 40,000 new jobs in construction and manufacturing. This investment alone is expected to increase U.S. memory chip production from less than 2% today to more than 10% over the next decade.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, too, recently announced it had received US$6.6 billion in grants and US$5 billion in loans to boost U.S. production of advanced semiconductors in Arizona, while Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) inked a deal for US$20 billion in combined grants and loans, and Samsung a further US$6 billion.

The TAMIM Takeaway

Identifying companies that are poised to benefit from megatrends is a great strategy for finding long-term investment winners on the share market. There is no doubt that increased demand for semiconductors is one such megatrend as the world moves into a new era fuelled by EVs, 5G, cloud computing and AI. For U.S.-focused investors, the CHIPS Act looks only set to compound this trend, providing enormous incentives for companies to increase their development and production of advanced semiconductors in America. While some may have reservations about the level of the U.S. government deficit and growing debt level, the US$278 billion of funding for the CHIPS Act certainly provides an opportunity for investors.

Weekly Reading List – 21st of March

This week’s reading and viewing list covers The Great Paradox Of The U.S. Market,  Inflation, Bank Failures, Bubbles and Other Lessons from Financial History with Mark Higgins and Turnarounds.
📚 Turnarounds (Ian Cassel, Microcap Club)

📚 Sir John Templeton: The Gentleman Bargain Hunter (Kingwell)

📺 America Needs More Techno-Optimism, with Marc Andreessen and Tyler Cowen (Youtube)

📚 Investing is an act of faith (Aswath Damodaran, h/t Financial Times)

🎙️ Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI (Lex Fridman Podcast)

📚 The Great Paradox Of The U.S. Market! (Jeremy Grantham)

🎙️ Inflation, Bank Failures, Bubbles and Other Lessons from Financial History with Mark Higgins (Excess Returns Podcast)

​📚 Fight the Urge to Take Profits (All Star Charts)