The past week has seen global markets whipsaw amid the latest U.S. tariff announcements, with Australian equities caught in the crosscurrents. Initially, global equities shed over $5.4 trillion in value following sweeping U.S. tariffs on imports, sending the S&P 500 to an eleven-month low and sparking fears of a global growth slowdown.
Overnight, the U.S. administration announced a 90-day suspension of these heightened tariffs, shifting instead to a flat 10% “reciprocal tariff” on all imports except China, which now faces a punitive 125% rate. This move is designed to buy time for negotiations, with over 75 countries reportedly seeking discussions with Washington. Some will say this was the plan all along while others will say that Trump folded. Regardless of which it ends up being, the one thing we at Tamim expect from a Trump presidency is whipsaw new and there whipsaw price action in markets.
For Australian investors, this dramatic policy reversal has delivered immediate relief. The ASX 200 surging more than 5% on the open, the strongest since the pandemic selloff in March 2020. However, while the short-term reaction has been positive, the broader forces reshaping the global economy remain firmly in play.
Global Shockwaves, Local Consequences
Even with the tariff suspension, the underlying fragility of the global trade environment has been exposed. Australia remains a highly trade-exposed economy, with key sectors like resources, energy, and agriculture heavily reliant on export demand particularly from China, which has been directly targeted by the U.S.’s harsher tariff measures.
While the immediate market relief rally is welcome, the ASX remains sensitive to any signs of slowing Chinese growth or disruption to global supply chains. Sectors like materials, energy, and industrials will continue to see volatility, especially if the global economy trends towards slower growth and fragmented trade flows.
Interestingly, some Australian exporters particularly in beef may stand to benefit from the reordering of trade relationships. With China imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, Australian producers could gain market share, at least in the near term.
Currency, Capital and Inflation Considerations
The Australian dollar remains a key barometer of market sentiment. Global uncertainty typically sees the AUD weaken against the U.S. dollar, which supports exporters but raises costs for importers and consumers. Inflationary pressures may linger, especially if the global trade environment remains unsettled.
For investors, a weaker currency coupled with global risk aversion may lead to greater interest in Australia’s income-generating assets. Defensive sectors, such as infrastructure, healthcare, and REITs with reliable cash flows, may continue to attract capital as global investors seek stability.
Beyond Tariffs: Structural Shifts Are Driving Markets
It is important to remember that the tariff dispute is only one part of a much larger story. The global economic landscape is undergoing structural realignment. The framework that supported decades of globalisation, low inflation, free trade, cheap capital is under pressure from rising debt levels, geopolitical rivalry, and a push for national self-sufficiency.
Australian equity markets, like others globally, are adjusting to this new reality. Valuation multiples, especially in growth sectors that benefitted from ultra-low rates, may remain under pressure. Conversely, companies with pricing power, stable domestic earnings, and exposure to long-term structural themes such as energy transition or infrastructure are likely to be better placed.
Australia’s Policy Position and Market Outlook
Australia remains relatively well-positioned from a fiscal and financial system standpoint. However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has noted that while direct impacts from U.S. tariffs are manageable, the broader global slowdown risk remains a key challenge for Australia’s growth outlook.
The Reserve Bank of Australia faces a complex balancing act. The prospect of imported inflation via a weaker currency needs to be weighed against slower global growth and domestic economic fragility. This dynamic reinforces the importance of selective investing and maintaining exposure to businesses able to manage through a more uncertain macro environment.
TAMIM Takeaway
At TAMIM, we view the overnight tariff suspension as a temporary reprieve not a resolution to the deeper challenges facing the global economy. For Australian investors, this environment demands focus, discipline, and selectivity. We continue to favour companies with robust domestic earnings, strong balance sheets, and the ability to generate reliable cash flows in a world of heightened uncertainty. Businesses aligned with key structural themes such as infrastructure development, energy security, digital transformation, and strategic manufacturing remain core to our outlook.
While headlines may swing markets day-to-day, the long-term investment opportunity lies in understanding the real forces reshaping the global and Australian economy. Those able to position ahead of these structural shifts rather than react to short-term noise will be best placed to generate sustainable returns over the coming cycle. Again, we also remind investors that when markets present opportunities through volatility driven sell-off those are the times to get interested. Our philosophy is when all those around you are afraid it is time to buy and when those around you are greedy it is time to be cautious.
This week’s TAMIM Reading List explores the intersection of money, time, and machine. We begin with the latest Rich List, revealing the hedge fund managers who topped the earnings charts, and dive into private equity’s high-stakes bet on retiree pensions. A clear-eyed Recession Road Map offers insight into the current economic mood. From groundbreaking discoveries in time crystals to Waymo’s autonomous driving progress, the future is closer than it appears. Also in the mix: DOGE’s tangled corporate connections and a surreal peek into an accidental leak of war plans.
In a market increasingly driven by headlines and hype, true investment opportunities often lie beneath the surface hidden in quality businesses trading below their intrinsic value. TAMIM Asset Management’s Global High Conviction portfolio is built on that very principle. Rather than chasing momentum, the strategy focuses on identifying strong companies that are misunderstood, undervalued, or simply overlooked.
As we move into 2025, macroeconomic volatility, policy uncertainty, and shifting global priorities make stock selection more important than ever. In this article, we spotlight three high-conviction global stocks from TAMIM’s portfolio that offer a compelling mix of value, long-term growth, and resilience.
1. Danone S.A. (ENXTPA: BN)
Resilient Consumer Staple with Global Reach
Danone, the French multinational behind iconic brands like Evian, Activia, and Aptamil, is one of the most underrated players in the consumer staples sector. In a market distracted by high-growth tech narratives, Danone’s combination of global brand strength and operational discipline makes it a stock to watch in 2025.
The company ended 2024 with a standout performance, like-for-like Q4 sales grew by 4.7%, beating analyst expectations. What’s notable is that most of this growth came from volume gains (up 4.2%), rather than price hikes, indicating real consumer demand. North America remains a key growth engine, especially in high-protein dairy and bottled water categories.
Danone also demonstrated margin resilience, with full-year recurring net profit rising to €2.35 billion and operating margins improving to 13%, up from 12.6% the previous year. The company’s renewed focus on capital efficiency and disciplined investment has brought it back to double-digit returns on invested capital, signaling strong corporate health.
Trading at a forward P/E of 18.6 with a 3.0% dividend yield, Danone offers defensive characteristics in an uncertain market. Yet its evolving product mix, including plant-based nutrition and functional beverages, adds an element of structural growth. For investors seeking stability with upside, Danone is a name worth watching.
2. Evonik Industries AG (XTRA: EVK)
Innovation-Driven Industrial with Income Potential
Specialty chemicals might not grab headlines, but they’re essential to nearly every global supply chain and Evonik is a leader in this space. With operations across nutrition, smart materials, and performance chemicals, Evonik supplies high-value inputs to industries ranging from agriculture to automotive and electronics.
In FY2024, Evonik reported a 25% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, with earnings growth across all divisions. Strong contributions came from animal nutrition, catalysts, and high-performance polymers highlighting the company’s diversified revenue base. It’s also actively investing in next-gen technologies such as biosurfactants, battery materials, and circular economy solutions.
The “Evonik Tailor Made” transformation program is already paying off. Streamlined management, reduced complexity, and enhanced cost control have positioned the company for further margin expansion. For FY2025, the business is targeting up to €2.3 billion in EBITDA.
Financially, Evonik is on solid ground. Free cash flow for 2024 reached €873 million, with a strong 42% conversion rate, and the company maintained a generous dividend of €1.17 per share, yielding over 5%. Its leverage ratio dropped to 1.5x, giving it room for future investment or shareholder returns.
Yet despite these fundamentals, Evonik still trades at just 13x forward earnings and 1.1x book value, presenting a clear valuation disconnect. For long-term investors, this could be an opportunity to buy a high-quality industrial innovator at a discount.
3. Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM)
Undervalued Giant Powering the Future of Connectivity
With much of the semiconductor industry riding high on AI hype and cyclical rebounds, Qualcomm is quietly delivering solid, consistent performance. As a global leader in wireless technology and chip design, the company is central to key trends in 5G, edge computing, and automotive connectivity yet its valuation doesn’t reflect this positioning.
Qualcomm operates through three main segments: QCT (chipsets), QTL (licensing), and QSI (strategic investments). Its chips and IP power everything from smartphones and IoT devices to next-gen vehicles and industrial automation systems. These are not just growth sectors, they are becoming foundational to the modern economy.
The company’s FY2024 performance was strong across the board. Revenue hit $40.7 billion, with net income up 36% year-on-year to $10.6 billion. Operating margins remained robust, and Qualcomm’s net debt has been reduced to just $272 million, offering flexibility for future strategic moves.
Shareholders are also being rewarded, with a recently increased dividend (2.15% yield) and a continuing buyback program. Looking ahead, Qualcomm sees strong tailwinds in on-device AI, ADAS automotive systems, and the broader IoT ecosystem.
Despite these growth vectors, Qualcomm trades at a forward P/E of just 13.5 a valuation that doesn’t fully capture its innovation pipeline or market position. For investors seeking exposure to foundational tech at a reasonable price, Qualcomm remains a high-conviction name.
Why These Stocks?
Danone, Evonik, and Qualcomm may operate in very different industries, but they share key characteristics that align with TAMIM’s investment philosophy:
Strong fundamentals and balance sheet discipline
Global relevance and diversified revenue streams
Valuation support, with price multiples below industry averages
Exposure to long-term structural trends (health & nutrition, industrial innovation, digital infrastructure)
These are not speculative plays. They are core positions in a carefully constructed portfolio designed to generate risk-adjusted, long-term returns for investors seeking quality in uncertain times.
The TAMIM Takeaway
2025 is shaping up to be a year of transition. Geopolitical tensions, rising volatility, and evolving economic policies are likely to keep markets on edge. In such a climate, it’s easy to get caught up in the short-term noise.
But as TAMIM’s Global High Conviction strategy demonstrates, the better course is often to tune out the noise and focus on fundamentals. These three stocks Danone, Evonik, and Qualcomm are prime examples of high-quality businesses with staying power, pricing power, and room to grow.
For investors seeking to build a resilient portfolio amid the crosswinds of a changing world, these are three global names to keep firmly on the radar.
Disclaimer: Danone S.A. (ENXTPA: BN), Evonik Industries AG (XTRA: EVK) and Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are held in TAMIM Portfolios as at date of article publication. Holdings can change substantially at any given time.
In an environment dominated by uncertainty, volatility, and shifting macro narratives, long-term investors must look beyond the noise to find quality businesses with structural tailwinds and undervalued potential. TAMIM Asset Management has long held the view that value can emerge in pockets of the market that are temporarily overlooked, misunderstood, or undergoing transformation.In this two-part series, we regroup companies across TAMIM’s All Cap and Small Cap Income portfolios by strategic themes, rather than fund or size classification. Part One focuses on three businesses operating in essential sectors – healthcare, life insurance, and financial infrastructure that are poised for re-rating as they unlock value, recover earnings power, or become strategic assets in consolidating markets.
Healius (ASX: HLS)
From Turnaround to Takeover Candidate in HealthcareHealius, Australia’s second-largest pathology provider, is undergoing a pivotal transformation that positions it for significant shareholder value creation. With the $965 million Imaging division sale nearing completion, the company will soon hold over $450 million in net cash, clearing the way for a capital return of $300 million+, bolstered by $160 million in franking credits.The sale also unlocks a cleaner story: a pure-play pathology business with ~$1.3 billion in annual revenue. While EBIT margins currently sit around 1%, well below industry norms (7-10%), this margin compression is largely self-inflicted, tied to investments in labour, technology upgrades, and pathologist remuneration. But with those upgrades nearing completion and workforce optimisation underway, the earnings power is likely to rebound.Importantly, the balance sheet strength and return of capital will act as a short-term catalyst. Beyond that, TAMIM believes a strategic acquisition is highly probable. A renewed merger with Australian Clinical Labs (ASX: ACL) would create scale synergies and consolidate the sector. Either way, the sum-of-parts valuation implies at least 40% upside, and the business remains a prime candidate for either a turnaround-led re-rating or a strategic sale.
ClearView Wealth (ASX: CVW)
A Deep Value Play in Life Insurance with Capital DisciplineClearView is a classic TAMIM-style pick: underappreciated, cash-rich, and emerging from short-term volatility stronger and more focused. The company’s Q1 FY25 was impacted by an unexpected claims spike, but a rapid recovery in Q2 saw NPAT jump from $4.2 million to $11.0 million, bringing profitability back in line with historical averages.Management has acted decisively. Instead of paying a dividend, ClearView initiated a 10% share buyback, recognising the deep disconnect between intrinsic value and the market price. Net assets sit at 55.1 cents per share, and embedded value is 94 cents, yet the stock continues to trade around 45-50 cents. This implies a 50%+ discount to fair value.Premium growth remains strong (up 8% to $191.4 million), while the company retains 10.6% market share in new life insurance business. Cost management, repricing, and retention strategies have all been implemented to restore margins.TAMIM views this as a multi-year compounding story, with FY25 group NPAT expected at $32.5 million and FY26 forecasts rising to $46.8 million. If management executes, the stock could re-rate toward 70-80 cents, offering 50-80% upside over the next 12 months. With a forecast P/E of 6.2x FY26 earnings, the margin of safety is substantial.
Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR)
A Fintech Leader Scaling Across VerticalsTyro is one of the few listed Australian fintechs that is both profitable and expanding across multiple high-growth verticals. Its FY25 H1 was its most profitable period since IPO, with EBITDA growing 12x to $33 million, net profit reaching $10.5 million, and gross profit compounding at 18% annually since listing.The standout story is Tyro’s healthcare payments vertical, where it processes $7 billion annually and holds a 7% market share. With a total addressable market of $100 billion, this segment alone presents a large growth runway. Tyro is outpacing industry growth, especially in general practice and allied health, while entering new verticals that could generate $39 million in gross profit over the next three years.Tyro is also building out its banking arm through a partnership with Constantinople. While banking currently makes up 7% of gross profit, the company aims to lift this to 20%, introducing lending and deposit products that further deepen merchant relationships.Finally, Tyro remains a strategic asset with M&A appeal. Past takeover bids in 2022 were priced at $1.50+, and the current valuation 5.3x EBITDA remains compelling. With a strong balance sheet, optional buybacks, and visible growth in both fintech and banking infrastructure, Tyro is not just a recovery play but a platform business poised to scale.
The TAMIM Takeaway
Healius, ClearView, and Tyro may operate in different industries, but they share several traits that align with TAMIM’s strategic approach. All three provide essential services with resilient demand drivers, are currently trading at significant discounts to intrinsic or sum-of-parts valuations, and possess tangible catalysts such as capital returns, margin expansion, or acquisition potential. Backed by cash-rich balance sheets and sound capital discipline, these companies are not speculative punts; they are fundamentally sound businesses where valuation is likely to catch up to operational reality.For investors seeking long-term value in 2025, these three names stand out as high-conviction opportunities. Stay tuned for Part Two, where we explore digital infrastructure, scalable tech platforms, and another set of undervalued TAMIM portfolio companies positioned for re-rating.
Disclaimer: Healius (ASX: HLS), ClearView (ASX: CVW) and Tyro (ASX: TYR) are held in TAMIM Portfolios as at date of article publication. Holdings can change substantially at any given time.
In a recent episode of the All-In Podcast, Scott Bessent, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary under President Donald Trump, provided deep insights into the economic challenges facing the United States. The conversation, hosted by Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Friedberg, was expansive, covering topics from debt management to deregulation and the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund.
As the former Chief Investment Officer of Soros Fund Management and founder of the hedge fund Key Square Group, Bessent’s insights are grounded in decades of financial experience. His tenure as Treasury Secretary is likely to shape U.S. economic policy for years to come, with significant implications for global markets, including Australia. This analysis will break down the key points discussed during the podcast, examining their potential impacts and providing statistical context where applicable.
National Debt and Deficit Concerns
One of the central themes of the conversation was the alarming trajectory of the U.S. national debt and deficit. The U.S. budget deficit recently hit a record $840 billion over a four-month period, a figure reported by Bloomberg that highlights the unsustainable nature of current fiscal policy. Bessent drew comparisons to European economies that have been caught in cycles of stagnation due to excessive debt accumulation. His plan emphasises the need for targeted spending cuts, particularly within areas of wasteful government expenditure. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), U.S. debt is projected to exceed 125% of GDP by 2030 if current trends continue.
Revitalising the American Dream
Bessent’s vision for economic policy includes restoring key aspects of the American Dream: home ownership, financial security, purposeful employment, and the ability to support a family without the need for multiple jobs. He emphasised that this vision requires addressing both inflation and wage stagnation. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, real wages have grown by only 0.7% annually over the last decade, failing to keep pace with rising costs of living. This dynamic has exacerbated income inequality, a problem Bessent aims to tackle through deregulation and enhanced productivity.
The ‘3-3-3’ Economic Strategy
Perhaps the most ambitious proposal laid out by Bessent was his ‘3-3-3’ economic strategy:
Achieving 3% real GDP growth.
Reducing the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2028.
Increasing U.S. energy production by 3 million barrels per day.
The implications of this policy are profound. A return to 3% GDP growth would significantly boost tax revenues and potentially ease the burden of debt repayment. However, reaching this target will require structural reforms that enhance productivity and incentivise private sector investment.
Addressing Government Spending
Bessent’s approach to fiscal discipline focuses on reducing government expenditure rather than increasing revenue. He argued that the U.S. faces a spending problem, not a revenue problem. This view is supported by recent data from the Tax Foundation, which shows that U.S. tax revenue as a percentage of GDP is already among the highest in the developed world. A focus on expenditure cuts, rather than tax increases, could mitigate the risk of dampening economic growth while still addressing fiscal imbalances.
Deregulation Initiatives
Bessent’s commitment to deregulation is aimed at fostering economic growth by reducing bureaucratic constraints on businesses. His focus includes sectors like financial services, healthcare, and energy. According to the American Action Forum, regulatory costs on the U.S. economy exceed $2 trillion annually. Rolling back inefficient regulations could boost productivity and enhance the competitiveness of American industries on a global scale.
Reordering International Trade and Revitalising Manufacturing
Bessent outlined a vision to restructure international trade, promoting domestic manufacturing through tariff incentives and supply chain resilience. This strategy aims to revitalise the U.S. middle class by bringing high-paying manufacturing jobs back to American soil.
Establishing a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund
The proposal to create a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund is one of the most radical ideas presented by Bessent. The aim is to better manage and grow national assets to generate higher returns and reduce reliance on debt. This approach mirrors the success of countries like Norway, whose Government Pension Fund Global has grown to over $1.4 trillion.
Balancing Energy Policies
Energy security was another priority discussed by Bessent. He highlighted the need for a balanced approach that includes both traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. The goal is to reduce energy costs for consumers while ensuring the U.S. remains a global leader in energy production.
The TAMIM Takeaway
From an Australian perspective, Bessent’s policies are of significant interest. The deregulation of financial markets and emphasis on productivity growth could have positive implications for global capital flows, potentially benefitting Australian companies with exposure to the U.S. market. Moreover, the establishment of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund could have far-reaching consequences for asset allocation and investment trends. As always, TAMIM remains focused on navigating these shifts with insight, foresight, and a steady hand.
Innovation-Driven Industrial with Income Potential
Undervalued Giant Powering the Future of Connectivity
From Turnaround to Takeover Candidate in Healthcare 
A Deep Value Play in Life Insurance with Capital Discipline 
A Fintech Leader Scaling Across Verticals 
