This week’s TAMIM Reading List explores how we think, how we age, and how we shape the world around us. We begin with a debate at the heart of neuroscience: what is consciousness, and where does it come from? From there, we spotlight the surprising brain-boosting effects of gardening, nature’s antidote to cognitive decline. On the cultural front, Nicolas Cage’s wildest roles reveal a surprisingly coherent artistic vision. In economics, rising tariffs are quietly creeping toward the US consumer, while a $200B philanthropic bet raises bold questions about legacy and risk. We examine Sinofuturism’s techno-cultural lens on Asia’s future, and ask if a single line of code might just fix Google. Across science, art, policy, and platforms, this week is about futures being reshaped.
This week’s TAMIM Reading List captures a world in flux, where technology, money, ethics, and identity intersect in surprising ways. Google is quietly shifting its role from search engine to answer gatekeeper, while North Korea is reportedly gaming AI job interviews to infiltrate tech firms. As AI accelerates, thought leaders warn that protecting human creativity may soon be as important as protecting natural resources. In the U.S., a stark split in consumer behaviour emerges between the wealthy and the rest. Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s political transformation adds fuel to an already polarised moment. For balance, we finish with dogs, pills, and Aaron Judge’s improbable year.
Introduction: Investing in the Utilities of Tomorrow
In the final instalment of our Small Cap Energy Transition Playbook, we explore a vital but often overlooked enabler of the global shift to clean energy: software for utilities. Following our reviews of Southern Cross Electrical (infrastructure) and Energy One (trading platforms), we now turn to Gentrack (ASX/NZX: GTK), a small cap leader in billing and customer engagement software, positioned at the heart of energy sector digitisation.
As the global push toward decarbonisation accelerates, the transformation of utility IT systems has become critical. “Smart grid software,” “utility billing platforms”, and “digital transformation in energy” are more than just buzzwords, they reflect a generational shift in how power is delivered, priced, and managed. Gentrack offers investors exposure to the software spine of that transition.
Thematic Fit: From Ageing Systems to Agile Software
Gentrack is one of a handful of global software firms providing cloud-based billing and engagement solutions tailored to energy and water utilities. Why now? Because the industry is experiencing a once in a generation churn event: legacy platforms, often built over 30 years ago, are no longer equipped to handle the complexity of distributed energy, dynamic pricing, or customer centric services.
A key catalyst: SAP, the market incumbent, is retiring its on-premise billing stack by 2027. Utilities globally must transition to SAP HANA or choose alternative providers. This has created a spike in RFPs and tenders, with many utilities re-evaluating their vendor mix. Gentrack’s next-gen product, g2.0, has emerged as a modern, scalable alternative.
Source: Company
GTK’s g2.0 is built for modularity, fast deployment, and integration with renewable systems, smart meters, and digital apps. It enables utilities to future-proof their billing, improve customer experience, and embrace regulatory changes with speed.
Financial Profile: Profitable Growth with Recurring Revenue
Consensus forecast for Gentrack is forecasting NZ$240 million in revenue and NZ$42 million in EBIT for FY25 (September year-end), underscoring its earnings momentum. Ahead of 1H25 results (due 19 May 2025), analysts expect:
Revenue of NZ$110–$118 million (+8–15% YoY)
Recurring revenue rising to NZ$76 million (from NZ$65 million)
Cash EBITDA of NZ$20 million (before SBC)
Importantly, Gentrack’s revenue is largely subscription-based, giving it high earnings visibility and strong operating leverage. Even as it invests in R&D and international expansion, margins remain healthy.
Growth Signals: Pipeline Maturing, Team Expanding
Gentrack’s hiring spree tells its own story. With 46 open roles and a 5% headcount increase over six months, GTK is clearly preparing for delivery. Recent job ads in Bulgaria suggest work has begun on a significant project with the country’s largest retailer with over 4 million meter points. GTK recently won UK contracts with Utility Warehouse and Ecotricity (UK), and already counts AC Energy (Philippines), and Neom (Saudi Arabia) as recent customers.
Management has also reported a surge in RFPs, spurred by its strengthened reputation and the SAP transition tailwind. Trusted consulting firms like EY and Deloitte are increasingly recommending GTK, creating new inbound opportunities.
The company has guided to >15% revenue CAGR and 15–20% EBITDA margins over the medium term—despite fully expensing all R&D costs.
Balance Sheet and Strategic Optionality
With NZ$70 million net cash, Gentrack has dry powder for opportunistic acquisitions that could complement its product suite or geographic footprint. Management has hinted at bolt-ons, but the focus remains on disciplined growth.
GTK’s clean balance sheet, proven management, and expanding pipeline give it the optionality to grow both organically and via acquisition.
Catalyst Watch: May Results Key to Re-Rating
GTK has a track record of outperforming post-earnings:
Last four reporting periods saw rallies of 10–29%
Market responds favourably to contract wins and pipeline updates
May’s 1H25 results will be pivotal. Investors should watch for:
New contracts (Bulgaria confirmation, other EU wins)
FY25 guidance upgrades
Strength in recurring revenue
Margin expansion as scale increases
Given GTK’s high operating leverage and expanding addressable market, we believe the stock is worth $25.00 on a 2-year view.
Tamim Takeaway: Betting on the Backbone of Energy Digitisation
Gentrack is not just a billing software provider, it is a mission-critical enabler of the modern utility. As energy providers shift from centralised generation to distributed, digitised, and customer centric models, platforms like g2.0 are indispensable.
For Tamim, GTK fits squarely within our investment framework: a founder-aligned, profitable small-cap with structural tailwinds, high recurring revenue, and global growth prospects. As with Southern Cross and Energy One, GTK provides exposure to the picks and shovels of the net-zero transition, without betting on binary outcomes.
Actionable insights for investors:
GTK is a prime candidate for investors seeking digital infrastructure exposure in the utilities sector.
Monitor May’s 1H25 results for evidence of revenue acceleration and contract conversion.
Long-term structural tailwinds (SAP sunset, regulatory reform, decentralised energy) make this a multi-year compounder.
With strong cash flow and no debt, GTK offers growth with downside protection.
Gentrack isn’t flashy, but it’s foundational. And in energy, that’s where the real value lies.
Disclaimer: Gentrack (ASX/NZX: GTK) is held in TAMIM Portfolios as at date of article publication. Holdings can change substantially at any given time.
The Australian CBD office sector finds itself at a crossroad. Amid rising interest rates, shifting tenant behaviours, and growing operational costs, market sentiment has soured. Yet, beneath the headlines of falling values and surging incentives, there are pockets of resilience and opportunity, particularly for active managers with local insights and hands-on strategies.
Rather than declaring a broad-based structural decline, we believe the current environment calls for a nuanced approach. Yes, there are real challenges, especially in oversupplied or policy-unfriendly regions. But there are also meaningful opportunities for long-term investors willing to engage actively with their assets.
Supply, Demand, and the Flight to Quality
Let’s start with the macro picture. CBD vacancy rates nationally have pushed higher, with Melbourne currently over 18% and Sydney at 13.3%. Substantial new supply in recent years has coincided with evolving work-from-home patterns and cost-conscious tenant behaviour, resulting in a tenant’s market across many grades.
However, this trend is not uniform. Premium-grade assets in core locations continue to attract tenants seeking high ESG ratings, modern infrastructure, and attractive amenities. The “flight to quality” is real, and while incentives remain elevated, net effective rents in top-tier assets are beginning to stabilise.
In cities like Brisbane and Adelaide, leasing volumes remain robust, with net absorption in 2024 surpassing 10-year averages. Perth is experiencing improved leasing outcomes due to lack of new supply, and the Canberra market remains supported by government tenancy.
Operational Headwinds: Incentives and Fit-out Costs
One area where pressure is building across the board is in incentive structures. Landlords are offering generous inducements, often above 35%, to secure long-term tenants. These incentives, combined with rising fitout and compliance costs, are squeezing net returns.
This is particularly acute in older, secondary-grade buildings requiring capital upgrades to meet ESG or tenant expectations. For assets lacking a clear repositioning strategy, value erosion is real and continuing.
That said, modern, well-located assets with proactive management teams are weathering the storm better. Incentives may remain high in nominal terms, but they are increasingly being deployed strategically, to accelerate leasing, secure renewals, or support tenant co-investment.
Government Policy: A Double-Edged Sword
Governments, especially in Victoria, have introduced land tax increases, foreign ownership levies, and council rate escalations that are beginning to bite. These policy settings are deterring offshore capital and undermining feasibility for new projects.
The system for land valuation, often opaque and seemingly disconnected from market dynamics, is amplifying the challenge. In many cases, assessed land values have climbed despite falling rents and capital values.
On the flip side, several state and local governments are actively supporting CBD revitalisation initiatives, including transport infrastructure, residential conversion incentives, and planning reform. These initiatives could pave the way for medium-term demand uplift and value recovery in well-positioned precincts.
Valuations: Realignment Underway
Across the market, asset values have already reset significantly. Valuation write-downs of 10–25% are common, particularly in B-grade and fringe assets. Yet, this correction is creating new entry points for investors willing to navigate complexity.
Importantly, yields in some markets are beginning to stabilise. Buyers with longer investment horizons, especially those with build teams and refurbishment capability, are starting to re-enter the market. These investors recognise the value in acquiring well-located assets at a discount to replacement cost, with the ability to reposition for the next cycle.
Tamim’s Perspective: Active Over Passive, Strategy Over Sentiment
At Tamim, our approach to office property is pragmatic and selective. We’re not blindly bullish but nor are we writing off the sector. Our experience managing office assets underscores the importance of:
Local knowledge: Understanding tenant demand and council planning priorities
Hands-on management: Working closely with leasing agents, tenants, and build partners
Capex discipline: Prioritising spend where it drives returns or de-risks leasing
Valuation rigour: Challenging assumptions around land values and return on investment
We see value in certain metro and fringe CBD locations, especially those well-connected by transport, benefiting from infrastructure upgrades or migration tailwinds.
TAMIM Takeaway: Repricing Reveals, It Doesn’t Destroy
Yes, Australia’s CBD office sector is under pressure. But it is not homogenous, nor is it structurally broken. The challenges, supply, incentives, and policy, are significant but not insurmountable.
Actionable insights for investors:
Focus on location, tenant profile, and building quality—not just rental yield.
Be cautious in Victoria, where policy settings remain highly unfriendly.
Look for assets trading at material discounts to replacement cost with repositioning upside.
Avoid passive strategies, success in this cycle requires operational skill and real estate IQ.
Assess land valuations critically and be ready to challenge assessments through review.
This is a market for investors who build, manage, and engage, not those who buy and hope. For the right assets, managed the right way, this repricing phase may ultimately prove to be an opportunity, not a crisis.
In investing, there are few enduring truths, but one towers above the rest: nobody knows the future. Whether facing the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, or today’s geopolitical upheavals and trade tensions, history repeatedly demonstrates that certainty is an illusion.
Drawing on insights from Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Nobody Knows (Yet Again),” we explore why embracing uncertainty, rather than fearing it, remains the most rational investment strategy. Investors searching for timeless lessons in navigating volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity will find powerful guidance here.
The Nature of Uncertainty: Lessons from 2008 and 2020
In 2008, as financial institutions collapsed like dominoes, panic engulfed markets. Yet, even in the eye of the storm, Marks argued that predicting a full financial collapse was beyond anyone’s capabilities. He advised investors to move forward not with confidence, but with reasoned logic: most of the time, the world does not end.
Similarly, in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, expert opinions were replaced by speculation. Without historical analogues or reliable data, investors had to make decisions based purely on imperfect information.
Key lesson: In moments of upheaval, acting without full certainty, while uncomfortable, is often necessary to achieve superior long-term returns.
Acting in the Face of Uncertainty: The Courage to Invest
One of Marks’ most profound insights is the recognition that “the refusal to act is itself a decision.” Investors cannot sit on the side-lines waiting for uncertainty to resolve. By the time clarity emerges, opportunities will have disappeared.
Buying into fear, when others are paralysed by it, historically offers outsized rewards. As Walter Deemer aptly titled his book, “When the Time Comes to Buy, You Won’t Want To.” Fear is often greatest precisely when prices offer the most attractive future returns.
Thus, embracing calculated risk-taking in uncertain times is not reckless; it is essential.
For more on how disciplined buying during periods of market fear can set the foundation for long-term success, see Investment Wisdom: Buying Well.
The Futility of Forecasting: Why Expert Predictions Often Fail
Marks emphasises that even seasoned economists, business leaders, and policymakers operate in an environment of complexity too vast for reliable forecasting. Models built on historical data fail when unprecedented events occur.
“Analysing the future” is, he argues, an oxymoron. The future is unwritten, shaped by millions of unpredictable human decisions. Those who demand certainty before acting are likely to be left behind.
Investor takeaway: humility and flexibility should replace false confidence.
Second-Order Effects: The Complicated Consequences of Policy Actions
Another major theme from “Nobody Knows (Yet Again)” is the importance of considering second and third-order consequences, especially around tariffs and trade wars.
While tariffs might aim to reshore manufacturing and reduce trade deficits, the unintended consequences are numerous:
Higher prices and rising inflation
Declining consumer purchasing power
Supply shortages and economic dislocation
Retaliation from trading partners
These ripple effects can cause far more harm than policymakers anticipate. Investors must consider not just the direct impacts of political or economic actions, but their cascading effects across industries and societies.
The Fragility of Globalisation: Risks to Peace and Prosperity
Globalisation has been a major driver of global peace and prosperity since World War II, raising living standards around the world. Marks cautions that protectionist policies could unravel decades of economic progress, weaken global alliances, and create new systemic risks.
If international trade and cooperation decline, investors should anticipate higher costs, lower growth, and greater geopolitical instability—a complex backdrop requiring selective, risk-aware investing.
Investing in uncertain times demands more than forecasting skills; it demands courage, humility, and discipline.
The greatest opportunities often arise when fear dominates markets. However, they require investors to move forward with rational analysis, not certainty. As Howard Marks reminds us, it is in the moments when “nobody knows” that the seeds of future outperformance are sown.
For Tamim investors, the focus remains on identifying resilient businesses, maintaining valuation discipline, and leaning into opportunities when risk premia are elevated.
Nobody knows what tomorrow holds but history has shown those who act thoughtfully during uncertainty are those who ultimately prevail.
