
Authors: Ron Shamgar
This is an excerpt from the latest updates for the Australian equity strategies in the TAMIM Fund, you can access the full reports here:
EML Payments (EML.ASX)
EML Payments (EML.ASX) provided a nine-month trading update with $43.8m of EBITDA in the nine months to March ‘21. Q4 is seasonally weaker but with $10m of EBITDA delivered in Q1, typically the other seasonally weak quarter, EML was already on track to land at the top end of EBITDA guidance ($50-54m) and most likely beat it (prior to CBI regulatory issue).We believe a reasonable resolution with the CBI, both in terms of timing and materiality, will be announced in the next few weeks and FY22 remains exposed to several positive trends as well as an encouraging pipeline of new business. We see a recovery in high margin multi-currency card volumes in Europe and gift card mall volumes should underwrite strong FY22 EBITDA growth.
Additionally, the PFS processing synergies should be delivered and the recently announced acquisition of Sentenial (pending final approval) will start contributing to the open banking opportunity. Finally, we have seen Marqeta IPO in the US with a valuation of 49x Gross Profit in 2023, compared to 6x for EML. Our valuation remains in line with previous estimates.
People Infrastructure (PPE.ASX)
Empired (EPD.ASX)
Cardno (CDD.ASX)
We believe that CDD’s largest private equity owner, Crescent Capital, has decided that it may be time to realise their investment in CDD and Intega (ITG.ASX). We first took our position in CDD at around 30 cents and we forecast cash EPS of 7-8 cents in FY21. Assuming a takeover premium and a conservative multiple of 15x, we expect any takeover offer to be $1.20+. Watch this space!
Intega (ITG.ASX)
More importantly, management noted that ITG is performing well and is well positioned to benefit from the strong pipeline of infrastructure investment in both the US and Australia. The business has significant organic and inorganic growth potential, particularly in the US markets, as well as adjacencies.
The Board believes that the business is undervalued by the market and we tend to agree. We bought ITG at around 32 cents and we see cash EPS of 4-5 cents in FY22. We see any takeover premium landing around the 60-70 cents range.
