Global Equities

Dear Investor,

We provide this monthly report to you following conclusion of the month of March 2026.

March concluded one of the most eventful quarters in living memory. Global risk assets sold off significantly, driven by the outbreak of the Third Gulf War, which sent oil prices sharply higher and injected considerable uncertainty into financial markets. Global equities fell 6.3% (USD) over the month, though remain modestly positive year-to-date (+2.5%). Global Listed Infrastructure outperformed broader markets, declining in absolute terms but holding up considerably better at -3.8% for the month (+0.1% AUD). The Tamim portfolio performed held up at 0.05% for the month of march net of fees.

Unsurprisingly, oil and gas was the standout sector. US LNG producer and exporter Cheniere Energy rose 20.4% (USD), while Japanese LNG carrier Mitsui OSK Lines also performed well, gaining 11.8%. On the other end of the ledger, US AI-exposed utilities came under significant pressure. Constellation Energy was the worst performing position in the portfolio, falling 21.2% following underwhelming earnings guidance.

The asset rotation narratives that dominated February and March have now given way to more fundamental concerns about the global economic outlook. While predicting the trajectory of the current geopolitical environment remains deeply perilous, one thing is clear: so long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, global economies will face substantial and sustained pressure. To date, the impact has been somewhat cushioned by pre-war oversupply conditions and elevated crude-on-water inventory levels, but this buffer will not last indefinitely.

Over the longer term, we expect many countries to accelerate deglobalisation trends, expanding domestic oil and gas production where possible and diversifying supply chains where not. For some, this will require a degree of economic realism: tempering net zero ambitions in order to shield their economies from external shocks. We continue to see electrification trends as structurally intact, but increasingly expect the near-term path to be one of electrification without decarbonisation. This is already visible, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea have each moved to increase their reliance on coal-fired generation following the effective shutdown of Qatari LNG supplies. Against this backdrop, our preference remains US LNG production, and Cheniere Energy specifically, which is a direct beneficiary of higher oil prices and structurally tightening LNG markets.

Shifting to US-China relations, President Trump is scheduled to meet President Xi Jinping in mid-May. We expect both sides to frame the summit in grand terms, but the realistic outcome is stabilisation of the current relationship rather than any structural reset. Small, symbolic agreements around trade, tariffs and technology are the most likely deliverables. A meaningful breakthrough remains a low-probability outcome given the depth of underlying tensions, but even a managed de-escalation would be a welcome development for markets that have been pricing in considerable geopolitical risk.