The notable shift in rhetoric from Lowe and the RBA is in stark contrast to the commentary given in October where it was implied rates wouldn’t rise until 2024. Now it seems the RBA will be unrelenting in its pursuit of demand destruction to bring inflation under control.
ANZ expects national prices to fall 5% in 2022 and a further 10% in 2023. CBA forecasts prices to fall 18% in both Sydney and Melbourne over the next eighteen months, with a 15% national decline. Given property prices increased 25% since the onset of the pandemic, both estimates leave the vast majority of households better off.
A blunt instrument
It’s highly improbable the cash rate reaches that number by year-end. But even if it did, its impact would be diminished. 30% of households don’t have a mortgage at all. Of the 37% with mortgages, around 40% remain on fixed-rate loans. Most of these will roll off in the next eighteen months but that still leaves a sizeable chunk of the population with little incentive to curb spending. In fact, households with strong balance sheets may capitalise on the price dip, entrenching housing inequality.
One offsetting segment is the 31% of households that rent. With supply restricted and borrowing costs on the rise, it’s likely this segment will feel the heat most.
The other big issue is that much of the inflation problem is largely supply, not demand-driven. Sure, the pandemic brought forward some discretionary spending. But rising oil and energy prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chain bottlenecks and a global food shortage are all outside of the RBA’s direct control.
Get the hint
The RBA has been somewhat successful so far, with the latest Westpac-MI consumer confidence survey indicating that sentiment had reached its third-lowest point since 1994. The only two times confidence had gone lower were in the Global Financial Crisis and at the start of the pandemic. Meanwhile, construction activity has begun to fall, a lead indicator of economic confidence.
Where to from here?
The more likely outcome is that between now and 2.5% Lowe pauses to assess the impact of cash rate rises on the economy. If arrears and unemployment remain low but inflation is still persistent, he likely sends the cash rate to 2.5% and inflicts a ~15% correction in home values in line with ANZ’s forecast.
Should inflation still persist, the risk of a more material housing downturn emerges. Lowe may be forced to increase the cash rate as unemployment rises, thus sending Australia’s economy into a recession. However, by this point, the elevated inflation numbers will be cycled. This means the supply-side challenges like energy and food shortages would need to worsen further for inflation to remain elevated.
Overall, for the overwhelming majority of households, the initial interest rate rises will be manageable. Normalising the cash rate will also be beneficial in the long run, as it will give the RBA ammunition to support the economy in future downturns. The elephant in room is how much demand destruction is required to rein in inflation and if the RBA needs to go beyond its stated neutral rate of 2.5% to achieve this.